Why Overconfidence Occurs and How to Overcome It

Overconfidence

Overconfidence happens to all of us. Ever have a plan that just couldn’t go wrong? And then you get a kick in the butt. Ever know that something must be true, only to find out later that you had it backwards? Overconfidence is when you think you are more likely to be right than you actually … [Read more...]

Critical Thinking in Decision Making

critical thinking in decision making

Critical thinking is often talked about as a stand-alone activity. Like some other individual activities, thinking critically may just feel good. Yet, critical thinking seems most useful when it aids other cognitive processes, such as applying critical thinking in decision making. Anne Helsdingen … [Read more...]

Decisive or Indecisive? It’s a Cultural Question

Indecisive

Indecisiveness is bad. Indecisive politicians are a bunch of wishy-washy flip-floppers. Decisive entrepreneurs grow great businesses (or at least fail spectacularly while trying). If a decision is a commitment to a course of action, then “indecision” is a failure to commit. Indecisiveness … [Read more...]

Write to Decide

How to make a decision? Write about it.

When you need to know how to make a decision, some suggest that you “go with your gut,” acting quickly and instinctively. Others suggest analytical approaches that may involve computation of the anticipated value of options, based on numerically expressed likelihoods and utilities. Each of these … [Read more...]

Thinking in a Second Language Improves Decisions

A recent study published in Psychological Science found that prompting people to think through some standard decision problems in their second language reduced common biases in their thought processes. Should you force yourself to think in Spanish when it's time to choose your next car? Read more … [Read more...]

Become an Ace Forecaster

Cognition and Forecasting

Do you have what it takes to predict the future?  Global Cognition is collaborating on a project to improve the anticipation of interesting world events using innovative crowd sourcing techniques.  Our forecasting website is free, open to anyone, and provides a unique way to stay ahead of the news. … [Read more...]